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Macro US Stocks

BofA Strategist Sees S&P 500 Q3 Earnings Growth of 32%, Above Consensus

Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian said S&P 500 third-quarter earnings will grow 32% year over year, above the 27% consensus estimate. She said the market backdrop into earnings season “has been good,” with Q3 estimates revised up 1% over the past three months and corporate guidance “unusually strong.” Subramanian called the Q3 macro environment “broadly good” but noted the dollar has “turned into a mild headwind.”

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AI take

The gap between BofA's 32% and the 27% consensus is the real story: it suggests sell-side estimates may still be lagging unusually strong corporate guidance, a setup that has historically favored beats. The dollar's turn from tailwind to mild headwind matters most for multinationals with heavy overseas revenue, where translation effects could offset operational strength. Whether upward revisions continue through the season, rather than fade after early reporters, is the open question.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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