Goldman Sachs Strategists See 10-Year Treasury Yield Rebound, but Risks Linger

The interesting tension here is that Goldman's call for a yield rebound rests on positioning and forward-rate dynamics rather than any change in the underlying fiscal or inflation picture — meaning the trade is technical, not fundamental. The bullish long-bond options flow, betting on the 30-year yield falling, shows some large participants positioning the opposite way, which is worth noting given how thin holiday trading can be. Whether that split resolves in favor of the strategists' view or the options flow is the open question, and the oil move cited as a Treasury-negative signal suggests the macro backdrop is not cooperating with either camp cleanly.