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Crypto Macro

BIS Paper Links Higher Deposit Rates to Slower Stablecoin Growth, USDC More Sensitive

A Bank for International Settlements working paper found that rising U.S. bank deposit rates are associated with slower stablecoin market-cap growth. Using weekly U.S. data from January 2019 to June 2025 and controlling for bitcoin prices, Treasury yields and financial conditions, the authors estimate that a 1-basis-point weekly rise in the average deposit rate corresponds to roughly a 3-percentage-point reduction in cumulative stablecoin growth over the following ten weeks, to about 12% from a 15% average. USDC reacted more strongly than USDT. The views are the authors’ and not necessarily those of the BIS or its member central banks.

Original source

AI take

This reframes stablecoin growth as partly a function of relative yield rather than pure crypto adoption, which matters for how the sector is modeled during rate cycles. The USDC-versus-USDT sensitivity gap suggests issuer structure and reserve design shape how exposed each token is to conventional banking competition, a distinction worth watching as deposit rates move. The paper carries working-paper caveats and author-only views, so whether the relationship holds beyond the studied window remains the open question.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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