RBA’s Hauser: Australia faced capacity pressures in early 2026

The admission that the inflation outlook has deteriorated relative to August expectations marks a shift in tone from the RBA, and the reference to capacity pressures frames the problem as supply-side rather than purely demand-driven — a distinction that matters for how policy is likely to be characterized going forward. For Australian rate-sensitive sectors, including property and credit, this signals a less comfortable backdrop than previously communicated. Whether the RBA's next set of forecasts formalizes this deterioration, and whether capacity constraints are treated as persistent or transitory, is the open question.