TREE NEWS reports: ARK Invest’s updated open-source model values Tesla at about $4,400 per share in 2031, with Monte Carlo simulations putting the bull case near $5,000 and the bear case near $3,300. The firm expects Robotaxi to contribute roughly 80% of Tesla’s enterprise value by 2031, with about 8.1 million cumulative deployments in the base case, while Optimus external sales are projected at about 1 million units and roughly $212 billion in robot-as-a-service revenue.
ARK Invest values Tesla at about $4,400 per share by 2031
AI take
The headline number is less telling than the composition: ARK's model now leans overwhelmingly on Robotaxi, with Optimus and robot-as-a-service as secondary pillars. That shifts the valuation debate from vehicle margins to execution on autonomy and fleet deployment, where the base case assumes millions of cumulative deployments. The tight spread between bull and bear cases suggests the firm sees the outcome as binary on autonomy rather than broadly distributed. Whether Robotaxi scaling and Optimus commercialization track those assumptions is the open question.
Generated by AI for reference only.
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