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Macro

Investors Grow Pickier on US Treasury Bills as Fed Path and Supply Remain Uncertain

Investors are becoming increasingly selective about the US Treasury bills they are willing to hold, as uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy path and rising Treasury supply cloud the outlook. Inflows into money markets have slowed, raising concerns over whether some of the largest buyers of T-bills can continue to absorb growing issuance. Treasury bills have long been a key financing tool for the US government as the fiscal deficit widens.

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AI take

The shift is less about demand disappearing than about demand becoming conditional, which matters most for the marginal buyer of short-dated paper as deficits keep issuance heavy. Slower money-market inflows put the burden of absorption on a narrower base of buyers, a dynamic that touches funding markets well beyond Treasuries themselves. Whether selectivity hardens into a broader capacity constraint, and how the Fed's path interacts with supply, is the open question worth watching.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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