HTX Research: Midterm Elections Shift Policy Expectations, Macro and Flows Cap Crypto Upside

The report's core point is that political outcomes are being priced as a sentiment variable, not a liquidity one — the Fed's rate level and the stalled market-structure bill are the binding constraints, and neither resolves on an election calendar. That distinction matters most for traders treating the midterms as a catalyst for structural crypto legislation, since the Senate vote shows the legislative path is still blocked regardless of who wins. The open question is whether inflation and financing costs ease enough to let flows offset policy uncertainty, or whether the report's high-volatility, selective-recovery base case becomes the steady state.