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Crypto Prediction Market Weekly Volume Hits Record $2.7B

Weekly nominal trading volume on crypto-related event contracts at Kalshi and Polymarket reached $2.7 billion last week, a record high. Volume was driven mainly by up/down contracts, with Kalshi’s 15-minute bitcoin contracts sometimes exceeding $1 million per period. Crypto is now the second-largest category on both platforms after sports.

Original source

AI take

The record figure is less about crypto conviction than about market structure: the volume is concentrated in ultra-short up/down contracts, a format closer to high-frequency betting than to forecasting. That matters because it shifts these platforms' revenue base toward churn-heavy, latency-sensitive flow, which raises questions about liquidity durability and how regulators view such products. Crypto's rise to second place behind sports on both venues also signals that event markets are becoming a retail trading venue in their own right. Whether the 15-minute contract volumes hold outside volatile periods is the open question.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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