Brazil’s Lula Wins Record Fourth Term in Upset; Bolsonaro Refuses to Concede

The contested transfer of power, not the vote tally itself, is the variable markets are now pricing. Bolsonaro's court challenge introduces a period of institutional uncertainty that the "Bolsonaro trade" had not discounted, and the selloff reflects that repricing rather than any judgment on Lula's policy agenda, which the item does not detail. Whether the challenge moves through the courts without disrupting the transition is the open question; the parallel mention of China's plenary offers no read-through on Brazil.