Citrini Research cuts semiconductor exposure, warns AI capex now market-dependent

The notable shift here is the framing of AI capex as market-funded rather than cash-flow-funded: once spending depends on equity and debt appetite, sentiment becomes a financing risk, not just a stock-price variable. The cited gap between current AI lab ARR and what Citrini says valuations require is the core of the bear case, and it targets the entire compute supply chain, not one company. The open question is whether hyperscaler cash flow reasserts itself as the funding base, or whether capital markets keep setting the terms.