Brazil Prediction Market Ban Blamed for Wrong Election Odds

The point here is about market structure, not forecasting skill: banning regulated prediction venues doesn't eliminate betting, it relocates it to thinner, less informed pools, and the resulting prices are worse for everyone who reads them. This matters for anyone treating prediction-market odds as a signal, and for regulators weighing restrictions elsewhere. Whether Brazil revisits its stance, and whether offshore activity deepens enough to restore price quality, is the open question.