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Macro US Stocks

AQR’s QMJ Factor Jumps 14.3% in July, Largest Monthly Gain Since 1957

AQR’s Quality Minus Junk (QMJ) factor rose 14.3% in July, its largest monthly gain since records began in 1957, after a record three-year run in which junk stocks outperformed quality names. Goldman Sachs’ basket of unprofitable tech stocks fell 11% in the third quarter, while Procter & Gamble rose 12.9% and Coca-Cola gained 17.3% since June 30. The prior two largest monthly QMJ gains occurred in November 2000 and October 2008, just before major bear markets.

Original source

AI take

The scale of this rotation is the story: a record monthly reading in a factor tracked since 1957, arriving after junk had led for three years, suggests positioning is unwinding rather than fundamentals repricing. The parallel to the prior peaks in late 2000 and 2008 is the uncomfortable part — both marked stress, not recovery — so the quality bid may signal risk aversion more than conviction. Whether this persists beyond a single month, and whether defensives keep outperforming unprofitable tech, is the open question.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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