Bitcoin Volatility at Historic Low; 30% Move Possible in 60 Days

The signal matters less for its directional bias than for what it says about positioning: compressed volatility typically reflects a market that has stopped repricing, which leaves room for a single catalyst to do outsized work. Fundstrat's framing puts the burden on traders who have grown comfortable with range-bound conditions, since a 30% swing in either direction would invalidate most carry and range strategies built for this regime. The open question is whether this compression resolves through a genuine macro catalyst or simply decays further, as low-volatility episodes have historically been poor timing tools even when they are reliable regime markers.