JPMorgan says oil market back in surplus after Middle East disruption

The signal here is the shift from disruption back to oversupply in the space of a few months, which matters less for any single price print than for how quickly the risk premium built during the conflict is unwinding. The read-through lands on producers and exporters whose revenue assumptions were set against a tighter market, with Aramco's upward output revision at HSBC reinforcing that direction. Whether the surplus persists as disrupted barrels fully return is the open question, and it is the one that will shape the next round of bank revisions.