SOFR Rises to 3.89% from 3.88%; Fed Funds Rate Holds at 3.88%

A one-basis-point move in SOFR is noise, not signal, and the unchanged effective fed funds rate confirms nothing in the policy stance has shifted. The detail that carries weight is the narrow spread between the two benchmarks, which suggests funding markets are clearing without the kind of pressure that has historically shown up around quarter- and year-end turns. Whether that spread stays contained as the calendar advances is the open question worth tracking.