TREE NEWS update: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Feb. 12 that no migrant caravan has reached Mexico’s northern border since Donald Trump returned to office in January 2025, responding to Trump’s threat to double tariffs on Mexican goods unless Mexico immediately stops caravans heading for the U.S. border. Trump announced the threat in a social media post but did not specify which goods or tariff rates would be affected.
Mexico’s Sheinbaum Rejects Trump Tariff Threat, Says No Migrant Caravan Reached Border
The tariff threat is notably vague—no goods or rates specified—which leaves markets guessing about scope and timing rather than pricing a defined risk. For cross-border trade and supply chains tied to Mexican manufacturing, the signal matters more than the substance: tariff policy is being used as leverage on migration, a linkage that adds a political premium to any exposure to Mexican goods. Whether the threat materializes into concrete measures, and how Sheinbaum's denial of caravans shapes that decision, is the open question worth watching.
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