Fed Rate Hike Odds Exceed 50% Twice This Year Ahead of NFP

This pricing shift signals that the market is bracing for a more hawkish Fed than previously expected, driven by sticky inflation and a sturdy jobs picture. The significance lies in the potential repricing of risk assets, as higher-for-longer rates typically tighten financial conditions and pressure valuations across crypto and tokenized real-world assets. For those markets, the immediate focus is whether the upcoming payrolls data confirms the labor market's resilience or introduces cracks that could alter the Fed's calculus. Whether rate hike odds sustain above the 50% threshold after the data is the key variable to watch.