Oil tops $90 as Iran strikes spike crude, stagflation trade returns

The convergence of a geopolitical supply shock with deteriorating macro data marks a regime shift in market pricing, where energy-led inflation now dominates the narrative over growth. The simultaneous drop in risk assets and gold, alongside rising yields, signals a repricing away from the 'goldilocks' scenario toward stagflationary risk. The key question is whether this forces central banks to prioritize inflation credibility over growth support, which would challenge the current valuation of duration and equities alike. Watch for whether energy prices sustain above this threshold, as that determines if the stagflation trade deepens or fades.