TREE NEWS reports: VanEck reports that 8 of its 12 Bitcoin capitulation signals are currently flashing, with all 12 having triggered in the past three months. The firm expects this drawdown to be shallower than historical bear markets (78-94%) due to spot ETF demand, broader institutional holdings, and the absence of major failures like Celsius, 3AC, and FTX. Bitcoin is currently down 49% from its peak.
VanEck: 8 of 12 Bitcoin Capitulation Signals Triggered
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AI take
VanEck's framing is the notable part: capitulation indicators are firing, yet the firm argues the structural buyer base has changed enough to soften the downside. That is a claim about market plumbing, not sentiment — ETF demand and institutional holders are treated as a buffer that did not exist in prior cycles. The open question is whether those holders behave as absorbers or as a source of reflexive selling if the drawdown deepens.
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