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Crypto Macro

Arthur Hayes: Euro-Yen Crash to 140 by June Signals Crypto Bull Resumption

Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, predicts EURJPY will fall from 185 to 140 or lower by June, citing U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s strategy to sell euros and buy yen. Hayes argues this will trigger a sharp expansion in dollar liquidity as French bank stress forces Federal Reserve RMP purchases, potentially restarting the crypto bull market. He remains long bitcoin, ether, Ethena, and Ether.fi.

Original source

AI take

This take ties a specific forex move — a euro-yen collapse — to a liquidity transmission mechanism that could reignite crypto risk appetite. The significance lies in Hayes framing a Treasury-driven currency strategy as the catalyst for Fed intervention, which historically supports speculative assets. It affects traders tracking macro-liquidity signals, as the claimed link between French bank stress and Fed purchases is the crux. The open question is whether the EURJPY decline to 140 materializes by June and whether central bank responses actually follow the predicted path, making currency and funding-stress data the key watchpoints.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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