Hedge funds bet yen to break 150 per dollar by year-end

This positioning signals a growing conviction among leveraged traders that the yen's recent weakness is nearing an inflection point, driven by expectations of policy divergence or broader market stress. The heavy skew toward year-end puts suggests hedge funds are not just hedging but actively speculating on a sharper move than current forwards imply. The concentration in November and December expiries indicates the bet hinges on near-term catalysts, likely central bank meetings or data releases. Whether the dollar-yen pair sustains its downtrend into year-end or these options expire worthless is the key test of this crowded trade's accuracy.