Polymarket: 64% odds Bitcoin hits $80K in September, 68.5% it falls to $75K

The striking feature is that Polymarket's odds assign a higher probability to a drop to $75,000 than to a rally to $80,000, even though the spot price sits just $495 below the upside trigger. That asymmetry suggests traders are pricing the downside as the nearer, more likely move rather than treating the two levels as symmetric distances. With 18 days left and thin liquidity relative to volume, the open question is whether those probabilities converge as the deadline nears or stay skewed toward the lower strike.