White House Crypto Adviser Signals Optimism on CLARITY Act Ahead of Senate Vote; Polymarket Odds at 20%

The gap between official optimism and prediction-market pricing is the real story here: a White House adviser talking up the bill while Polymarket traders assign it only a one-in-five chance of passing in 2026 suggests the market is weighing procedural and political hurdles that public commentary is not. That divergence matters most for anyone whose business model depends on a US market-structure framework, since it implies planning should assume continued ambiguity rather than a near-term resolution. Whether prediction markets or official signals prove better calibrated is the open question.