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BIS Warns AI-Driven Stock Rally Shows Signs of Fragility

The Bank for International Settlements said the AI boom that has driven global equities sharply higher over the past two years is showing growing signs of fragility. In its latest report, the BIS said investors are becoming “increasingly cautious” about the future profitability of AI investment, particularly as leverage at large US technology companies keeps climbing. It also flagged uncertainty from geopolitical tensions and energy price swings, with public finances under pressure.

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AI take

The BIS is flagging a shift in the AI trade's risk profile: the concern is no longer whether the technology works, but whether the balance sheets funding it can absorb disappointment. Rising leverage at large US tech firms matters because it amplifies any repricing in AI-linked equities, and the BIS tying that to geopolitics and energy costs suggests the vulnerability is macro, not just sector-specific. Whether caution among investors hardens into de-risking is the open question.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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