Fed Poised for First Rate Hike in Three Years, Market Prices at Least Three by June

The repricing from two to at least three cumulative hikes by June is the real signal here: the market is treating stronger core inflation and oil-driven energy costs as persistent rather than transitory, which shifts the burden onto the Fed's quarterly projections to validate or push back against that path. The division among officials over whether one 25-basis-point move suffices matters because it determines whether this is a one-off normalization or the start of a tightening sequence, with knock-on effects for dollar funding and risk appetite across crypto and tokenized real-world assets. Whether the projections confirm the market's three-hike path, or the committee signals a shallower trajectory, is the open question.