Polymarket Odds Drop to 5% for US-Iran 60-Day Negotiation Extension

Prediction markets are pricing near-certainty of no extension, which matters because these contracts aggregate dispersed beliefs into a single, tradeable signal rather than a poll. The collapse from a much higher level in a week suggests expectations shifted fast, though thin liquidity in geopolitical markets can amplify moves. The practical question is whether the market's confidence reflects genuine diplomatic deadlock or just the difficulty of an official announcement by the deadline; the binary settlement rule makes procedural ambiguity, not just intent, a real risk to the odds.