Flash News

TREE NEWS update: A magnitude 5.8 earthquake struck the waters off the eastern coast of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula at 00:34 on October 3. The quake’s epicenter was located at 51.55 degrees north latitude and 159.80 degrees east longitude, at a depth of 10 kilometers.

TREE NEWS reports: The number of active US natural gas drilling rigs stood at 133 in the week ended October 2, down from 135 the prior week. The two-rig decline marks a further pullback in gas-directed drilling activity.

TREE NEWS reports: ICE raw sugar futures rose more than 5.2% to 19.94 cents per pound, the highest level in 18 months. The move marks the strongest print for the contract since early 2024, extending a sharp rally in the soft commodity.

TREE NEWS update: Italy’s Economy Minister said there is currently no Italian candidate to replace Christine Lagarde as European Central Bank president, and called for clear clarification on rumors of Lagarde’s early resignation. The statement addresses market speculation over the ECB leadership. No successor from Italy has been put forward.

TREE NEWS reports: London Metal Exchange copper closed $15 higher at $14,258 a tonne. Aluminium fell $22 to $3,100, zinc slipped $14 to $3,710, lead dropped $6 to $1,852, nickel lost $8 to $15,626 and tin declined $319 to $54,013. Cobalt was the other gainer, rising $105 to $39,245 a tonne.

TREE NEWS reports: Bitcoin pushed toward its yearly high after a weaker-than-expected US jobs report erased market odds of an October rate hike. The move puts BTC back at the top of its 2025 trading range, with traders watching whether it can break through the yearly ceiling. The report landed as a macro-driven catalyst for crypto markets.

TREE NEWS reports: The premium investors demand to hold French government debt over equivalent German bonds has climbed to its highest level since the European debt crisis, as French bond yields surge. The move is heaping pressure on the European Central Bank, which faces being drawn into the turmoil in the French bond market. Markets are increasingly speculating on how much further the dislocation must deteriorate before the ECB deploys its so-far unused rescue tool.

TREE NEWS reports: Germany’s 2-year Bund yield rose 1.2 basis points to 3.076% on Friday, October 2, after touching a session low of 2.949% at 20:32 Beijing time when the US nonfarm payrolls report was released. The 10-year yield fell 4.6bp to 3.462% and the 30-year dropped 7.5bp to 3.819%. For the week, the 2-year fell 20.2bp and the 10-year 14.0bp.

TREE NEWS update: International Energy Agency executive director Fatih Birol said oil prices have fallen by at least $5 since the agency announced it will release crude and diesel from its reserves over the coming days and weeks. Allocation will be finalized after consultation with member countries, Birol said, adding that reserves remain ample and more could be released if necessary.

TREE NEWS reports: Russia’s government subsidies to refineries for domestic fuel supply are set to fall to 1.18 trillion rubles (about $14.1 billion) in 2027, down 39% from an estimated 1.93 trillion rubles this year. Fuel subsidies are projected at 801 billion rubles in 2028 and 812 billion rubles in 2029.

TREE NEWS reports: Argentina’s country risk spread rose to 650 basis points, its highest level in 10 months. The widening gap between Argentine sovereign debt yields and comparable US Treasuries reflects the country’s elevated borrowing cost. The spread has not been this wide since roughly ten months ago.

TREE NEWS reports: Saudi Arabia is considering a multi-front offensive against Yemen’s Houthi forces, including a coastal push aimed at securing Red Sea shipping lanes. The military operation is expected to begin within the coming weeks, with Yemeni forces set to lead on the ground.

TREE NEWS update: Prime Minister Mark Carney will become the first Canadian leader to make an official bilateral visit to Turkey, the Canadian government said. The trip marks the first such visit by a Canadian prime minister. No dates or further details of the visit were disclosed.

TREE NEWS reports: The UK 10-year gilt yield fell 3.2 basis points to 5.366% in late European trading on Friday, October 2, touching 5.291% when the US nonfarm payrolls report was released. The 30-year yield dropped 5.4bp to 5.891%, while the 2-year rose 1.6bp to 4.817%. The 2s/10s spread narrowed 4.656bp to +54.772bp.

TREE NEWS reports: Canada and Turkey’s trade ministers agreed this week to accelerate bilateral trade negotiations. The two sides will push forward talks aimed at deepening commercial ties between the two countries. No timetable or specific terms of a potential agreement were disclosed.

TREE NEWS update: A 49-year-old contractor died on October 1 while performing maintenance work in the crushing and material handling area of Codelco’s Radomiro Tomic copper mine in Chile, the second fatality reported in the world’s largest copper-producing country in two weeks. The death underscores the safety challenges facing new Codelco CEO Jorge Gómez, who is seeking to raise output while tightening safety management across the state miner’s operations. BHP’s Escondida mine also halted operations after a worker death during maintenance last week.

TREE NEWS reports: RBC Capital Markets pushed back its expected timeline for the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike cycle, now forecasting hikes at every other meeting in December and March rather than consecutive increases in October and December. Strategists Blake Gwinn and Izaac Brook said current terminal-rate pricing remains above the reasonable range of two to 2.8 hikes.

TREE NEWS update: Russia’s Defense Ministry said on October 2 that its forces struck infrastructure and vessels serving the Ukrainian military in an overnight attack, including a facility at the Izmail port in Odesa region used to receive, store and transport military supplies and fuel. Moscow also said it hit a dry cargo ship carrying Ukrainian military supplies, a road-rail bridge providing logistics support, and a substation in Kyiv region, and took control of three settlements in Kharkiv and Sumy regions over the past 24 hours.

TREE NEWS update: A tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile while departing the Strait of Hormuz on October 2, causing a small fire and a total power outage on board, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said. The fire was later extinguished and the vessel is currently underway. No casualties or environmental impact have been reported, and authorities are investigating; UKMTO advised ships to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity.

TREE NEWS reports: UBS executives recently discussed the potential costs of relocating its headquarters with Finland’s Nordea Bank Abp, which moved its base from Stockholm to Helsinki nearly a decade ago, people familiar with the matter said. The talks on the pros and cons of a move did not push UBS internally toward leaving Switzerland. The Swiss bank faces a choice between paying up to stay or exiting its home country as a capital reserve showdown nears.