US-Iran Indirect Talks Resume as Trump Confirms ‘Information Exchange’

US-Iran Indirect Talks Resume as Trump Confirms ‘Information Exchange’

TREE NEWS reports: Diplomatic contacts between Washington and Tehran are quietly advancing despite a confusing public back-and-forth. President Donald Trump confirmed on Monday that the two sides have exchanged messages through mediators, even after he publicly rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran has conveyed its “seven-day plan” to the United States via Qatar and is awaiting a formal response through the mediating channel.

Speaking at the White House, Trump said the negotiations were ongoing and that representatives had swapped information through intermediaries, without offering specifics. “We will win,” he said. “Things will be clear very soon.” He also denied reports that he had offered sanctions relief or unfrozen assets in exchange for Iranian concessions on its nuclear program, calling such claims “false information.”

Iran’s proposal, presented during the UN General Assembly, calls for the US to lift its naval blockade, remove oil-sales sanctions, restore a regional ceasefire, and unfreeze Iranian assets. In return, Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days and restart nuclear talks. Trump rejected the original offer on September 26, saying Iran was desperate because “they are losing badly.”

Still, Araghchi said mediators had not formally conveyed any US rejection. “We are waiting for the mediator to communicate a clear position, and we will decide accordingly,” he wrote on social media. He confirmed a fresh meeting with Qatari officials on Monday and said he would return to Tehran, with Qatar knowing how to relay any US response.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told CBS’s “Face the Nation” that Tehran is willing to negotiate on nuclear and other issues but will not accept “bullying or coercion.” He stressed that Iran has agreed not to develop nuclear weapons and does not seek war, though it will defend itself against pressure and threats.

Market Implications

The renewed diplomatic contact comes after seven months of a war that has killed thousands and severely disrupted global energy supplies. Oil prices have risen for a second consecutive day, with Brent crude briefly topping $100 a barrel. The conflict, launched in February under the name “Operation Epic Fury,” has already pushed inflation higher worldwide.

If talks progress, energy markets could see a sharp reversal. A credible path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz would ease supply fears, likely pressuring oil and natural gas prices lower. That would be a tailwind for equities, particularly transport, airlines, and consumer discretionary sectors, while weighing on energy stocks. Lower oil would also reduce headline inflation, potentially softening the tone of central banks and supporting bond prices.

Conversely, a breakdown in negotiations would likely send crude oil spiking again, reigniting inflation concerns and pressuring risk assets. Safe-haven flows into gold, the US dollar, and Treasuries would accelerate. Cryptocurrencies, which have traded in tandem with risk sentiment, could face renewed selling pressure.

For now, markets are pricing a modest probability of de-escalation. The uncertain trajectory of talks means volatility is likely to remain elevated across commodities and currencies. The Iranian rial and regional currencies would be particularly sensitive to any breakthrough or collapse.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Oil remains the primary transmission channel. Brent above $100 reflects genuine supply anxiety. Any sign of a Hormuz reopening could trigger a sharp sell-off in crude, benefiting importers and consumers.
• Inflation and rates are in play. Sustained high energy costs complicate the path for central banks. A diplomatic breakthrough would ease price pressures and could bring forward rate-cut expectations.
• Defensive positioning is warranted. Gold, the dollar, and short-duration bonds remain sensible hedges while the situation is unresolved.
• Crypto is not immune. Digital assets have traded as risk proxies. A spike in geopolitical tension would likely hit crypto alongside equities, while a de-escalation could support a relief rally.
• Watch the mediators. Qatar’s role as a conduit is critical. Any formal US response relayed through Doha will be the next major catalyst.