Bitcoin and HYPE Diverge Sharply
TREE NEWS reports: Bitcoin and HYPE took radically different paths last week. On October 30, a Binance security incident triggered a 4.12% single-day drop in BTC, briefly breaking below the lower bound of its descending channel and hitting a low of $76,265—just $135 shy of the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. The quick recovery suggested strong support at the channel’s lower rail. Meanwhile, HYPE held its $75 short-term pivot, surging nearly 20% intraday on positive news and approaching its all-time high.
Bitcoin: Daily Wave Analysis
BTC’s daily correction, which began on September 21 from $87,399, appears to be forming a three-wave structure. The current wave (i) has run for 41 trading days, with a maximum drawdown of 12.73%. The low of $76,265 is only slightly above the 0.382 retracement of the prior five-wave rally from $57,820 to $87,399, suggesting the wave (i) correction may be nearing its end. The $75,000–$76,500 zone is likely to mark the bottom, though a retest cannot be ruled out.
4-Hour Structure: Nine-Wave Decline
On the 4-hour chart, the correction has extended from seven to nine segments, with a descending central pivot (Zhongshu) between $82,556 and $84,361. While volume-based bottom divergence has formed, momentum indicators have not yet confirmed, implying potential for further consolidation. Still, the nine-wave structure suggests the daily wave (i) is likely to terminate above $75,000.
HYPE: Breakout and New Structure
HYPE’s daily correction from its September 23 high of $97.98 ended at $75, as evidenced by a seven-segment decline on the 4-hour chart. A bottom divergence at endpoint 96—confirmed by both volume and momentum—fueled a strong rally that broke above the prior high and approached record levels. The new daily uptrend is now underway.
Trading Strategy and Outlook
For BTC, the core focus is the termination of wave (i) and the subsequent wave (ii) rebound. Key resistance zones are $79,200, $82,500–$84,500, and $87,500; support lies at $75,000 and $69,100–$70,500. The strategy favors buying on dips with light positions (up to 30%) near strong support, while medium-term investors may remain on the sidelines until a clear bottom signal emerges.
For HYPE, the key is whether the price can stabilize in the $84.5–$88 zone. If so, light long positions can be initiated with targets at $97–$100 and $105. If support fails, the next entry zone is $80–$82. Risk management is paramount: set initial stops, move to breakeven at 1% profit, and trail stops as gains accumulate.
Overall, the market is at a critical juncture. Bitcoin’s correction may be in its final stages, while HYPE’s breakout signals renewed bullish momentum. Traders should remain cautious, avoid chasing rallies, and focus on structural signals for entry.
