Bitcoin Tests Key Technical Support as ETF Outflows Persist
Bitcoin fell below $75,000 over the weekend, marking its first weekly close beneath the 50-week moving average since mid-September and extending a five-week losing streak. Ether also lost the $2,100 level, while spot Ethereum ETFs recorded their sixth consecutive week of net outflows. The market’s focus now shifts to Tuesday’s U.S. October CPI report, which could determine whether the sell-off deepens or stabilizes.
Technical Breakdown and Market Sentiment
The 50-week moving average, a long-term trend indicator closely watched by institutional and retail traders alike, had served as support throughout the recent bull cycle. Losing it suggests a shift in momentum. Bitcoin’s failure to hold $73,000—a level that has acted as a psychological floor—would likely trigger further stop-losses and accelerate downside pressure. The five-week decline marks the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market, underscoring weakening demand.
Ether’s slide below $2,100 compounds concerns about the broader altcoin market. The persistent outflows from spot ETH ETFs, now in their sixth week, reflect institutional caution. Unlike Bitcoin ETFs, which saw brief inflows earlier this quarter, Ethereum products have struggled to attract sustained capital, raising questions about the asset’s near-term narrative.
Macro Overhang: CPI in Focus
All eyes are on Tuesday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index for October. A hotter-than-expected reading would reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer, a scenario that has historically pressured risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Conversely, a softer print could provide relief and spark a short-term rebound.
Market participants are also monitoring the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields, both of which have shown correlation with Bitcoin’s recent price action. A stronger dollar and rising yields have been headwinds for crypto throughout the past month.
Forward-Looking Perspective
While the technical picture is bearish in the short term, long-term holders remain largely unfazed. On-chain data indicates that accumulation addresses have continued to add to positions during the drawdown, suggesting confidence in Bitcoin’s longer-term value proposition. However, a decisive break below $73,000 could test that conviction.
The coming weeks will be critical. If CPI data comes in benign and ETF flows stabilize, Bitcoin could reclaim the 50-week moving average and restore bullish momentum. If not, the market may be in for a deeper correction, with the next major support zone around $68,000.
