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Macro

Traders Pay Up to Hedge Against Further Treasury Yield Rises

The premium on call options on US Treasury futures has turned more expensive than puts for the first time since March, signaling bond traders are paying more to hedge against a larger rise in long-end yields rather than betting on a selloff. One-way flow on Thursday showed buying across multiple call structures.

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AI take

The shift in options skew is a positioning signal rather than a macro call: traders are paying for protection against a move higher in long-end yields, not expressing conviction in a selloff. That distinction matters because it suggests the concern is about the cost of being wrong on duration, which touches anyone holding long-dated government debt or rate-sensitive exposure. Whether this skew persists or fades as quickly as it appeared is the open question, and it bears watching alongside the one-way flow that drove it.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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