UK Budget Measures Barely Ease BOE Rate Pressure, OBR Says

The OBR's verdict matters less for its size than for its shape: a temporary, round-tripping effect that shaves inflation briefly and then returns it suggests fiscal support is not a durable disinflation lever for the Bank of England. That keeps the burden of easing squarely on monetary policy, and it frames the budget as household relief rather than a rate-path game-changer. The open question is whether the OBR's projected early-year inflation peak, and its 2027 average, shift the debate over how long restrictive policy must persist.