ECB Holds Rates as Lagarde to Step Down Early; US PCE Hits 3.6%

The ECB's hold lands alongside a leadership transition announced well ahead of schedule, so the policy path now carries an added layer of institutional uncertainty that markets rarely price cleanly. The US data complicate the picture: headline PCE at its highest since May and core still above target, paired with strong growth, gives little room for easing and keeps rate differentials in play for the euro. Whether the succession process itself becomes a source of volatility, and whether US inflation continues to firm while growth stays this resilient, are the open questions worth tracking.