Deutsche Bank and BTIG Clash Over Year-End Rally Versus 2000 Tech Bust

Oct 30, 2026 05:12 ET · 23h ago

TREE NEWS reports: Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid, citing S&P 500 data since 1928, said the index typically bottoms around Oct. 27 and then rises into year-end, with 21 of the past 23 midterm years gaining in the three months after an early-October low. BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky instead sees the market tracking the 2000 Philadelphia Semiconductor Index collapse, forecasting SOXX to rebound to 550-570 before reversing around the midterm election week.

Original source

AI take

The split is less about direction than about sequencing: Deutsche Bank's seasonal pattern implies the low is already in, while BTIG's analogue allows for one more rebound before a reversal. That distinction matters most for semis, where the two views diverge on whether strength into midterm week is recovery or a setup for another leg down. The open question is whether the historical midterm base holds or the 2000 comparison proves the better guide.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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