Prediction Market Search Interest Drops 83% Post-World Cup, Kalshi Leads

The retreat in search interest matters less as a sentiment signal than as a test of whether prediction markets built durable habits or merely rented attention from a one-off event. Kalshi's relative gain while the overall category cools suggests share is shifting on product and positioning rather than on fresh inflows, which is a harder kind of growth to reverse. Whether Kalshi keeps converting that advantage once the event-driven traffic is fully gone is the open question.