US-Iran Conflict Spikes Oil Above $90, Global Stocks Plunge

This is a classic risk-off repricing driven by a geopolitical supply shock, but the market focus has shifted from the conflict itself to its inflation consequences. The jump in rate-hike odds suggests traders are now weighing a scenario where the Fed's next move is tighter policy, not looser, which could pressure risk assets further if the standoff persists. The key variable is whether the Strait of Hormuz disruption remains contained or escalates, as that will determine if this is a short-term spike or a sustained repricing of energy and rate expectations. For global equities, the immediate risk is a feedback loop where higher oil feeds inflation expectations, forcing central banks to stay hawkish, which would keep valuations under pressure.