ESMA Says Major Prediction Platforms Lack EU Authorization, Questions Polymarket and Kalshi Geo-Blocks

ESMA's scrutiny lands on the mechanics of geo-blocking rather than the platforms' products, which matters because partial restrictions have effectively served as the industry's compliance story in the EU. If the regulator does not accept that model, prediction markets face the same licensing question as other derivatives venues, and the burden falls on platforms that have scaled on the assumption that blocking some users is enough. Whether ESMA's findings translate into formal enforcement or a broader licensing push is the open question.