TREE NEWS reports: Zhang Yongwei, chairman of the China EV100 research institute, said China’s auto market will enter an adjustment phase in 2026, with domestic sales expected to fall 18% for the year while exports rise 55%. He told a media briefing for the 2027 Smart Electric Vehicle Development Forum that performance would be “broadly stable” with sharp structural divergence. Zhang said the market is expected to enter a recovery phase in 2027.
China auto market to shrink 18% in 2026, exports up 55%, researcher says
AI take
A projected double-digit contraction in domestic sales alongside a 55% export jump points to a market increasingly reliant on external demand to offset weakening home consumption — a structural shift rather than a cyclical dip. The divergence Zhang describes matters most for automakers with heavy domestic exposure and for supply chains built around volume growth at home. Whether the export surge can absorb that slack, and whether the 2027 recovery materialises, are the open questions.
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