FX Volatility’s Long Slump Becomes the New Normal, Traders Say

The striking part is not that volatility is low, but that market participants have stopped treating it as a cycle and started treating it as structure. That matters for anyone whose business model depends on currency movement — trend-following funds, FX desks, and corporates that hedge on the assumption that calm eventually breaks. The conference repetition suggests this is now a consensus view rather than a contrarian one, which is itself worth noting. Whether the structural explanation holds if bond and oil swings keep failing to transmit into FX is the open question.