Bitcoin Reclaims $80,000 as Macro Crosscurrents Shift
TREE NEWS reports: Bitcoin climbed back above the $80,000 mark on Wednesday, trading at $80,465 at 09:15 Beijing time, up 4.26% in 24 hours. Ether outperformed with a 6.38% gain to $2,415.76, while total crypto market capitalization rose 1.13% to roughly $2.71 trillion. The move comes as U.S. midterm election results delivered a divided Congress and crude oil prices tumbled, altering the inflation outlook that has weighed on risk assets.
Political Gridlock and Energy Repricing
Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, creating a split government that constrains fiscal expansion and shifts the policy path for energy and AI regulation. Equity markets rallied broadly, with the Dow posting a 3% gain, but data-center, power-equipment and some semiconductor names bucked the trend. Vertiv fell 12.89%, GE Vernova dropped 9.30% and Micron lost 7.00% as investors reassessed the pace of AI infrastructure buildout. Meanwhile, WTI December crude fell to $87.79 per barrel and Brent for January 2027 traded at $94.56, easing cost pressures and lowering expected inflation—a tailwind for duration-sensitive assets like bitcoin.
Labor Market Still Expanding
ADP reported 86,000 private-sector jobs added in October, with services contributing 82,000. The ISM services PMI came in at 54.5, slightly below September’s 54.9 but still in expansion territory. The data does not signal an imminent recession, but investors will watch Thursday’s jobless claims, productivity figures and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls for signs that cooling demand is accompanying easing inflation.
ETF Cost Basis and Institutional Flows
On-chain data from Glassnode shows the aggregate cost basis for U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs at approximately $81,500 as of October 28, meaning the current price remains about 1.33% below that level—a reference point for potential supply from ETF holders. Strategy’s disclosed average cost is $75,451 across 849,327 BTC, implying a floating gain of about 6.58%. Glassnode’s November 4 weekly report noted nearly $1 billion in net outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs over the two weeks ending November 2, suggesting the rebound still lacks confirmation from traditional allocators.
Crypto-Linked Equities Bounce
Strategy rose 5.09%, Coinbase gained 4.16% and Robinhood added 2.02%, tracking the spot recovery. But equity moves embed operating leverage, valuation and financing factors that go beyond simple bitcoin beta.
Forward Outlook
The key test for bitcoin is whether it can hold the $80,000 psychological level and approach the $81,500 ETF cost basis. Ether’s larger gain shows higher beta, but sustained upside requires spot demand and continued inflows. With the Bank of England decision and U.S. labor data ahead, macro volatility may persist—and crypto’s ability to decouple from traditional risk assets remains unproven.
