Bitcoin’s Bottoming Phase Ends as LTH SOPR Crosses Critical Threshold
TREE NEWS reports: Bitcoin is breaking out of its bottoming phase and entering a sustained uptrend. The key signal: the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for long-term holders (LTH) has risen above 1, indicating that these seasoned investors are now moving coins at a profit. This shift marks a transition from a bearish market to a neutral one, with the analyst declaring that a full-blown uptrend is now underway.
The SOPR Signal and What It Means
SOPR measures the profit ratio of spent outputs—when the metric is above 1, coins are being sold for a profit; below 1, at a loss. For long-term holders, this metric is particularly telling because it reflects the behavior of the most patient, diamond-handed investors. The analyst notes that in this cycle, LTH SOPR has not yet exceeded 6, whereas historical cycle tops typically form in that range. This suggests that long-term holders have not yet entered a phase of aggressive profit-taking, meaning the true bull market rally has not yet occurred.
“Everything before this was preparation for the current uptrend,” CW8900 stated. LTH holdings are at an all-time high, and these investors have continued to accumulate until recently. The analyst believes the real rally is only now beginning, and the cycle top will appear when SOPR surpasses 6, entering the profit-taking zone.
Market Implications
If the analyst is correct, Bitcoin could be on the cusp of a major upward move. The fact that long-term holders have not yet started to distribute their coins is a bullish sign—it suggests that the supply available for sale remains limited. Once profit-taking begins in earnest, it could signal the late stages of the bull market. For now, the market appears to be in a healthy accumulation phase, with long-term holders confident in further gains.
Investors should watch SOPR closely in the coming weeks. A continued rise above 1 and eventual approach toward 6 would confirm the analyst’s thesis. Conversely, a sharp drop back below 1 could indicate renewed selling pressure. Other on-chain metrics, such as exchange inflows and miner reserves, should also be monitored to corroborate the trend.
Forward-Looking Perspective
The crypto market has been range-bound for months, with Bitcoin struggling to break key resistance levels. The LTH SOPR crossing above 1 could be the catalyst that sparks a new leg up. However, macro factors—such as interest rate decisions and regulatory developments—remain wild cards. If the bullish on-chain signals align with a favorable macro environment, Bitcoin could surge to new all-time highs. For now, the data suggests that the smart money is holding, and the real bull run may have just begun.
