Flash News

TREE NEWS reports: Deutsche Bank global head of FX strategy George Saravelos said the dollar’s risk in the event of an AI-driven market pullback is “more two-sided than what the market has priced so far.” The remark flags that the greenback could swing either way if an AI-fueled selloff hits markets, rather than moving in one direction as current pricing implies.

TREE NEWS reports: Manulife Investment Management senior portfolio manager Nathan Thooft said investors should be cautious about overstating the long-term impact of U.S. midterm election results on the dollar. Currency markets are ultimately driven more by relative economic growth, inflation, interest rates and capital flows than by election outcomes, he said. A divided government implies fewer changes and reduced uncertainty, offering some stability to financial markets including the dollar.

TREE NEWS reports: The dollar’s rebound may have enough momentum to shrug off the US midterm elections, as high interest rates and a surge in AI-related spending pull capital into the US. Investors see the main drivers of dollar strength as unlikely to change regardless of the election outcome, with FX markets driven more by relative growth, inflation, rates and capital flows. A divided government could offer some stability to financial markets including the dollar, while a Fed resuming rate hikes could lift it further.

TREE NEWS update: Mexico’s state oil company Pemex said its refining output reached its highest level since 2014, with domestic fuel sales also climbing to their highest since 2018. The company disclosed both figures in a statement. No specific volumes or dates were provided in the material.

TREE NEWS reports: The cost of insuring against default on debt issued by several US tech giants hit record highs on Friday, as disappointing quarterly results from Intel and Amazon deepened concerns over whether the AI financing boom will ultimately pay off. Intel’s five-year credit default swap spread jumped as much as 22.4 basis points to 127.9 basis points a year, a record in both daily increase and absolute level, ICE Data Services data showed. Amazon’s spread rose 6.9 basis points to 94 basis points a year, also a record.

TREE NEWS update: European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said artificial intelligence has only a limited effect on inflation. The assessment from the ECB’s chief economist addresses whether AI-driven changes in productivity and pricing could shift the euro area’s inflation path. Lane did not elaborate on the specific channels or magnitude of that limited impact.

TREE NEWS update: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly, a 2027 FOMC voter, said artificial intelligence is crucial to the Fed’s price stability and employment mandates. AI is critical to how the central bank thinks about near- and medium-term policy, Daly said. She did not announce any policy decision or specify a timeline for rate moves.

TREE NEWS reports: Bitcoin traded around $77,000 as a US stock-market sell-off spread to gold, which fell to its lowest level in a year. The decline puts the largest cryptocurrency on course for its worst October performance in 12 years, with crypto markets tracking broader risk-asset weakness.

TREE NEWS reports: JPMorgan strategists said short-term U.S. Treasury valuations are unlikely to strengthen significantly next year, with pressure likely to be more pronounced as supply ramps up sharply in 2027. They warned that weakness in short-term Treasury prices could spill over into funding markets, especially if money market funds cut repo allocations to absorb more bill supply or if funding markets become more sensitive to bill settlement dates. Debt-ceiling dynamics may also come into play next spring, while the Treasury could keep the TGA balance low, further clouding the supply-demand picture.

TREE NEWS reports: JPMorgan strategists including Jay Barry and Pankaj Vohra said in a report that U.S. T-Bill issuance is expected to keep growing, with privately held issuance rising by another $991 billion in 2027, making demand the core question. They see headwinds, expecting money-market fund AUM growth to match the larger inflows of 2024 or 2025 absent major market disruption like the 2020 COVID shock or 2023 regional bank stress. Foreign official investors still have room to return to steadier T-Bill buying, but stablecoins lack a similar rationale without a crypto rebound or clearer regulation.

TREE NEWS reports: South Africa’s FTSE/JSE Africa Top 40 index closed down 2.42% at 99,412.34 points on Friday, October 30, capping a 0.58% weekly decline and a 1.37% drop for the month. Mining stocks led the losses as spot gold fell below $3,900 an ounce, with Northam Platinum down 7.28%, Pan African Resources 6.95% and Sibanye Stillwater 6.43%.

TREE NEWS reports: Mexico’s state oil company Pemex reported a third-quarter net loss of 10.79 billion Mexican pesos, narrowing sharply from a loss of 61.25 billion pesos in the same period a year earlier. The figure was disclosed without further breakdown of the results.

TREE NEWS update: Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said on the 30th that Russia plans to hold trilateral talks with Ukraine in Abu Dhabi under US mediation, calling them of “decisive significance” for resolving the Ukraine issue. In an interview with VGTRK host Pavel Zarubin, Ushakov said the Russia-US-Ukraine talks are “decisive” for everything that has happened in recent years and for the future. President Vladimir Putin had already confirmed Russia’s readiness to resume trilateral talks during a meeting with US special envoy Steve Witkoff.

TREE NEWS update: Vale has fully covered its fourth-quarter freight demand and locked in more than 80% of its 2027 freight requirements, a company executive said. The miner expects 2026 copper all-in costs near the low end of its guidance range and 2026 capital expenditure close to the bottom of its guidance, with fourth-quarter nickel costs falling to roughly second-quarter levels. Vale also hedged 67% of expected 2027 bunker fuel consumption and said about 10% of global seaborne iron ore supply is effectively loss-making.

TREE NEWS update: The Aluminum Association, the main US aluminum industry trade group, is urging Canada and Mexico to impose the same tariffs as the United States on aluminum imports from outside North America. CEO Chuck Johnson said the group wants Ottawa and Mexico City to apply identical rates at their own borders to ensure fair trade within North America. Asked whether the association wants the US 50% tariff lowered, Johnson said the group takes no position.

TREE NEWS update: Yemen’s Houthi movement said on the 30th it will target Saudi Arabia’s military command network inside areas controlled by Yemeni government forces. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree said in a social media statement that the group has intelligence on Saudi “combat management and frontline military command,” including command and support units and frontline bases in Aden and the provinces of Shabwa, Marib, Mahra and Hadramawt, and on the Socotra archipelago.

TREE NEWS update: China and Switzerland will each further lower tariff levels on nearly 300 tariff lines under their upgraded free trade agreement, China’s Ministry of Commerce said. The two sides reached high-level tariff reduction outcomes in goods market access, building on the original FTA. Under the latest arrangement, zero-tariff products will ultimately cover more than 99% of bilateral trade value.

TREE NEWS reports: Deutsche Bank’s global head of FX strategy George Saravelos said in a Friday client note that the dollar’s traditional safe-haven status can no longer be taken for granted if the AI-driven market rally reverses. Risks to the dollar are “much more two-sided than markets have priced over the past few weeks,” he wrote, pointing to recent simultaneous weakness in tech stocks and the dollar. “The ‘AI dollar’ has arrived,” the report said.

TREE NEWS reports: LPG closed up about 4.4% in the night session, leading gains among Chinese commodities. Styrene rose about 4.1%, PTA gained about 3.1% and low-sulfur fuel oil climbed more than 1.5%. Iron ore slipped 0.2%.

TREE NEWS update: China and Switzerland recorded $89 billion in bilateral trade in the first nine months of the year, up 127% year on year, China’s Ministry of Commerce said. The ministry said the signing of an upgraded protocol to the China-Switzerland free trade agreement will unlock greater potential for bilateral trade and investment and bring more innovation opportunities and development dividends to businesses and people in both countries.