TREE NEWS reports: After two weeks of sideways movement, crypto markets are showing renewed strength: ETF inflows have turned positive again and stablecoin issuance is stabilizing. The key question on everyone’s mind: is this the start of the next bull run? Market maker Wintermute argues that each major cycle has been fueled by a new liquidity channel—from early token sales and stablecoins to ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT). Now, it believes Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization is the most likely candidate to become the next major capital on-ramp.
Wintermute’s analysis highlights how previous channels—VC funding and token sales (2017-2018), stablecoins (2020-2021, with over $120B net issuance), and ETFs/DATs (2024-2025, with $63B ETF inflows and over $115B in DAT treasury purchases)—each brought a wave of external capital that repriced the market. However, these channels eventually matured into everyday infrastructure, and their marginal impact faded. Notably, ETF and DAT flows have recently stalled or reversed, with some DATs trading below net asset value, and stablecoin supply saw its largest contraction since the Terra collapse.
In contrast, the RWA channel is the only one still growing. While its net inflows (~$16B over the past 12 months) are still an order of magnitude smaller than previous peaks, Wintermute notes that it is still in its early phase—only 18 months since reaching observable scale, compared to 20-60 months for peak flows in other channels. The firm emphasizes that RWA is not just about tokenizing assets, but about bringing liquidity on-chain. Tokenized stocks, funds, and treasuries can now sit in the same wallets as crypto assets, and the friction to convert between them is decreasing.
Importantly, RWA capital does not directly buy crypto assets like BTC or ETH. Instead, it enters the on-chain ecosystem and can then be deployed across DeFi and other markets as infrastructure matures. This could lead to a more gradual but potentially longer-lasting bull market, as institutional holders of tokenized assets are less prone to short-term trading. Regulatory developments (like market structure legislation) and market infrastructure (acceptance of tokenized treasuries as collateral in DeFi) will be key catalysts.
For investors waiting for a broad altcoin season, Wintermute cautions that previous ETF/DAT-driven flows were structurally limited to large caps. The next cycle, if driven by RWA, may see capital flow into a wider range of on-chain applications. The firm will be watching whether tokenized assets can break out of their closed silos, be used as collateral, and generate yield beyond simple cash management—which would validate RWA’s potential as the next bull market’s liquidity engine.
